At the beginning of July 2011, many foreign media reported that pork was driving up China's inflation. Japan's News-Postseven magazine said inflation is accelerating in China, and one of the biggest drivers is the price of pork.
There are four major macroeconomic problems, and the biggest test China faces this year is undoubtedly inflation, which may have become the consensus of all parties in China. But if you are a foreigner, you may find it interesting that China's economic fluctuations are being shaped by the movement of pork prices. The catch phrase is: is it all pork? !
It may be hard for foreigners to understand how pork prices have "kidnapped" China's macro economy. The answer to this question is simple: One of the main economic tasks of the Chinese government this year is to control prices. The recent sharp rise in pork prices has led to a series of record year-on-year increases in CPI, so paying attention to and influencing the next trend of pork prices has become a key aspect of the macro economy.
Pork is one of the 262 basic categories in China's CPI basket, the National Bureau of Statistics news Office told reporters. The components of the CPI basket of goods and services change as prices change. Overall, the proportion of pork in the CPI basket fluctuates around 3 percent.
Which brings us to the next question... Why do pork prices affect CPI?
There are two reasons for this: 1. Pork prices have risen too sharply recently, rising 57.1% in June from a year earlier; 2. Pork prices account for a high proportion of CPI.
According to estimates by relevant institutions, every 20% increase in the pork price will affect the CPI by about 0.6 percentage points. If you take into account the impact on other foods, it could affect the CPI by about 1 percentage point. Some analysts believe that the weight of pork prices in the CPI could reach 9% if the impact of pork prices on overall food is taken into account.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher of the Rural Development Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the issue of weight cannot be changed from concept to concept. Even if the weight is set very low, people's real life experience is still there. After the price of pork rises, ordinary people either pay more for pork or eat less pork, which means the quality of life decreases.
"The proportion of pork in the CPI is too high and the pig price is too sensitive," said a pig breeding professional. "The proportion should be lowered to make it easier for both the country and the industry." .
Is the price of pork driving up China's CPI, or is the high CPI driving up pork prices?
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